Adamas Comments on Trump's Victory

By Barry Lau, Managing Partner & CIO (Private Investments)
November 2016

We want to share with you our views on, from where we sit in Hong Kong, China, this momentous election outcome of Trump’s victory is welcomed in a few ways:

  1. From a sociological and a democracy perspectives, had Hilary been elected, with a population of 300m people (of which close to 150m are college graduates), to have presidents coming from the family (father and son, husband and wife) representing such an intellectually blessed country, is ironic. Over a period of 27 years, the Presidents were as follows: George Bush (Sr) (1989-2001); Bill Clinton (1993 – 2001); George W Bush (2001-2009); Barack Obama (2009-2016); had Hilary been elected, a family run presidency would have represented 80% of the near term presidency of the USA. Thus, Trump’s victory is welcomed from a diversity standpoint.
  2. From a business and an economic perspectives, whilst Trump has been in business for the majority of his life, in terms of international trade, it is less certain given a lack of prior evidence as to how Trump may formulate his foreign policies. Trump conceded in his victory speech, “this was tough… this political stuff is nasty and is tough!” Clinton has decades of experience in dealing with politics and foreign policies. Trump has yet to be tested but without a doubt, Trump will have assembled a brilliant team to advise him in strategizing and implementing such foreign policies.
  3. Supporters of Trump mostly comprised voters who are: men, lower income brackets and/or lower educational backgrounds. Contrasting that with Clinton, whose supporters mainly comprised women, higher income brackets and/or higher educational backgrounds. 
  4. We believe there will be plenty of issues to be resolved domestically in the US and thus China may be less of a focus or concern by the new President. Currency, human rights, South China Seas conflicts are just a few of the topical issues.
  5. Rampant volatility has been experienced in the lead up to and aftermath of his victory. We do believe there will be a sharp relief rally.

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